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Understanding "Variable Change", The Monty Hall Problem

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Hopefully a video to help make "Variable Change", a veridical "paradox" made popular from Monty Hall's "Let's Make a Deal", clear. The movie 21 talks about it briefly, hopefully this video helps make sense of it. I kind of babble... so I think if you understand the premise of the dilemma, the last 2 minutes will help the most. Please message me if you have any questions. Thanks for watching!

Channel: Education
Uploaded: December 31, 1969 at 6:59 pm
Author: telecoustic

Length: 05:59
Rating: 4.46
Views: 15135

Tags: 21  car  change  deal  dilemma  goat  lets  logic  make  math  monty  movie  parade  paradox  probability  statistics  stats  variable  

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Video Comments

telecoustic (December 31, 1969 at 6:59 pm)
Yes, it is! Sorry if I may have made it more confusing... The last 2 minutes are the most helpful; I kind of babble. The chart in my own opinion helps the most. If you are still confused after, let me know!
babyaiko (December 31, 1969 at 6:59 pm)
this is confusing
imwahyou2 (December 31, 1969 at 6:59 pm)
oops i wasnt done commenting and accidntly pressed the button. anyways, if you actually listed the 2 possiblities for picking car on the first trial ur end results on your chart for switching woult be 2 cars and 2 goats.
imwahyou2 (December 31, 1969 at 6:59 pm)
can u help me understand this cuz i have a problem with ur chart.. cuz you wrote picking goat 1 and picking goat 2 as 2 different scenerios but then if you picked car you only listed one scenerio yet i believe there should be two. 1. you pick car, host reveals goat 1 and 2. you pick car, host reveals goat 2.
craijona (December 31, 1969 at 6:59 pm)
It all really comes down to that 33.3% of getting it wrong that the host takes away.Now some people believe that the 33.3% should just flop over to door number 2. Wyile it should be equally distributed between the other 2 doors, giving each a 50/50 chance. OR you could consider that the 33.% chance is "gone" in which case eahc is left with 33.3. I dont get it, I knwo Im wrong but im not sure how. lol
brewster102 (December 31, 1969 at 6:59 pm)
Your chart reveal the progression of logic more than anything else
telecoustic (December 31, 1969 at 6:59 pm)
Explain it to me? Are you dense? Don't teach Bob Ross how to paint; and don't tell me how to explain something that is clearly explained well enough. Yeah, I babble, but oh well. If you can't get the point, that's not my fault. Don't make yourself look like an ass in front of the whole world.
ctiger69 (December 31, 1969 at 6:59 pm)
Let me explain it for you real quick. You have three doors. There is a 1/3 chance you will pick the right door. There is a 2/3 chance you will pick the wrong door. So that's 33.3% for the right door and 66.7% for the wrong door. So based off of this stat you pick the wrong door the majority of the time.
leth41x (December 31, 1969 at 6:59 pm)
But you still get the goat! you still win!
jz335ch (December 31, 1969 at 6:59 pm)
Ah! thank you, i finally get it

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